I found the video that we watched in class on Thursday to be overly sensational. While all of the statistics in the video are true, some of them are overhyped. The statistics While the computers will have the processing power of the human brain soon, I do not find these statistics to be scary as some people did. My cell phone today has more computing power than a mid-1990s personal computer and we are still just fine. To me, the statistics offered hope for the future. The statistics do not show that machines will soon rise against us, but will provide computing power that to discover never before thought of ideas.
Until researchers are able to invent an Artificial Intelligence, programmers will always limit computers. The programs code determines what functions and processes a computer is able to perform. If the process does not exist in the code, the computer cannot complete the task. This limitation also makes computers inadequate for specific tasks that require identifying intangibles a computer cannot identify. For example, computer programs today always predict that the Americans would be able to win the Revolutionary War. The computer is unable to identify the intangibles such as the American will to fight, American knowledge of the lands, and the leadership of George Washington. While a computer may be able to eventually identify some of these intangibles, it will not be possible for many years.
Watson, an IBM Jeopardy playing supercomputer, best demonstrates the possibilities and limitations of computers in the near future. Watson was able to beat the two best Jeopardy players of all time by over $50,000 over the course of two days. Watson excelled because it consistently was able to "hit" the buzzer before the human competitors could. This advantage demonstrates the possibilities of the ever-increasing computing power of computers. Computers will able to go through data in hours that used to take days or even months. This offers endless possibilities for research and development projects. Projects that may have taken years or stalled because of a lack of computing powers now have the possibility of finishing in shorter time.
Watson also demonstrated the limitations of computers in the foreseeable future. In the US Cities category of Final Jeopardy Watson embarrassingly missed the question. On the question, " Its largest airport was named for a World War II hero; its second largest, for a World War II battle," Watson answered Toronto. Various possible explanations exist for the embarrassing answer, but all resolve around the idea that Watson was unable to process the context of the question fully. Watson had problems with similar questions in the earlier rounds, especially with shorter questions.
I for one am glad that we will not have to welcome our new Robotic overlords anytime soon. While computers may be increasing their computing power rapidly, they will always be limited by the programming. This increased computing power can and will promote break-through research and development around the world. If we should develop artificial intelligence however, we should begin prepare to welcome our new overlords.
Rhys I think you're right about the need not to freak about the advancements in computers. Just because computers can perform more "processes" this doesn't mean that their more intelligent. Sure you can say computers don't need to eat, sleep, and dream like humans, but this is also what makes us different.
ReplyDeleteHow many science fiction novels predicted that we would be replaced by robots by 2000? Last time I checked humans are still the ruling force on Earth. While I know we won't be around forever I wouldn't worry too much a bunch of machines which (for the moment) are dependent on us to run them.
However there are a number of issues with automation that we do have to worry about. What if some vital processes become totally automated and completely forget how to perform them? Are computers ruining our ability to communicate in person. Friedman argues that technological advance will revive our abilities to collaborate, but I would have to disagree. While humans will have to cooperate more in the future, I'm not sure this will be in the traditional sense we think of cooperation. With e-mail, texts, blogs, and video conferences becoming the new standards of communication I'm not sure we this is really "deepening" any relationships. We have to ask ourselves are we building our world for people or computers, because if computers do ever take over the world it will be of our own doing and not the computer's.